WealthVantage July 2025 Market Outlook & Review

Malaysia and global market summary for July 2025.

Global Market Highlights

• U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz remain major tail risks for oil supply. 

• Oil reacted sharply: rising ~25% to US$77; markets fear prices could spike above US$100, squeezing inflation and global growth.

• Recent ceasefire news between Israel and Iran boosted global risk sentiment—Nasdaq100 hit record highs; S&P 500 and Dow both climbed ~1–1.2%. 

• YFitch’s S&P 600 sees Middle East disruption as a potential drag on June PMI and risk‑off sentiment. 

Malaysia Outlook

• Government announced immediate relief in the form of one-off credit RM100 for Malaysian, targeted RON95 subsidy, RM500 million toll freeze, Jualan Rahmah Madani at RM600 million and additional public holiday.

• KLCI trimmed ~0.15%, but futures anticipated a bounce on global risk-on sentiment.

• Ringgit weakened ~0.7% in June, lifting palm oil competitiveness and positioning exporters for gains. 

• Bank Negara Malaysia decided to reduce the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to. 2.75%.

• Palm oil benefiting from EU deforestation compliance; Malaysia lead at ~86% MSPO certification. 

• Johor’s Iskandar–Singapore Special Economic Zone draws investments, adding jobs and economic activity. 

United States Outlook

• Fed proposed easing bank leverage requirements—a deregulatory shift aiming to enhance Treasury market liquidity. 

• Rumors of Trump replacing Chair Powell ahead of schedule triggered U.S. dollar weakening (3‑year low), bond rally, and concerns over currency wars.

• Trump tariff is scheduled to take effect on 1 August on dozens of countries including top trade partners like Canada, Mexico, Japan and the European Union.

China Outlook

• Caixin PMI fell to 49.6 in May, indicating private-sector contraction. 

• China’s 2025-26 GDP forecast upward on easing trade tension.

• Tariff pause aids sentiment alongside bank liquidity support, consumer stimulus, high-tech development, and outbound M&A recovery.

• KGI raises 2025 year-end Hang Seng target to 25,500, driven by domestic recovery and policy tailwinds The MSCI China Index has shown a notable rebound, with 1Q25 earnings growth gaining strong momentum.

 Alternative Investments

• Tech-led rally continues amid stabilizing geopolitical risk; S&P 500 remained near all-time highs supported by soft inflation and growth expectations.

• Treasury demand edged up on safe-haven flows, while lower yields reflect possible Fed easing and global uncertainty.

• Gold is gaining momentum amid Middle East tensions as a core safe-haven.

• Private credit growing focus on ESG strategies gaining attention for resilience. 

• Bitcoin hitting new all-time high with more than USD120,000

• ESG equity performance showed better resilience during past turmoil 

• Infrastructure, private equity, and private credit remain attractive amid market fragmentation.

What’s Next for Investors?

In today’s uncertain market, diversification is more important than ever. Global events, interest rate changes, and economic shifts can affect different investments in different ways. By spreading your money across various assets like stocks and. alternative investments, you reduce the risk of big losses and improve your chances of steady growth. Include exposure to markets like the U.S., China, and Malaysia, and consider long-term trends such as green energy or technology. Keep track of changes in the economy and review your portfolio regularly. A well-diversified portfolio is key to building long-term financial stability and peace of mind.